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CX2SA > SWPC 13.08.14 00:21l 60 Lines 2166 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9247-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<DB0RES<DB0ANF<CX2SA
Sent: 140812/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:9247 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:9247-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Aug,
14 Aug, 15 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
557 km/s at 12/0415Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/1641Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 12/1908Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (14 Aug, 15 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 104
Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 12 Aug 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 008/010-009/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/25/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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