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CX2SA > SWPC 07.07.15 00:23l 63 Lines 2338 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23481_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150706/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:23481 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:23481_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
06/2040Z from Region 2381 (N14E31). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
573 km/s at 05/2139Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/0018Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/0037Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 440 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09
Jul).
III. Event probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 133
Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 135/140/140
90 Day Mean 06 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 016/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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