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CX2SA > SWPC 08.07.15 00:21l 63 Lines 2328 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23517_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 150707/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:23517 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:23517_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
07/0409Z from Region 2381 (N14E17). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul,
10 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
601 km/s at 07/0238Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/2310Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/2318Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 576 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Jul, 09 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on day three (10 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 133
Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 07 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 005/005-006/005-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor Storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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