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CX2SA > SWPC 09.07.15 00:23l 63 Lines 2358 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23551_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150708/2220Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:23551 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:23551_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/2310Z from Region 2381 (N14E17). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jul,
10 Jul, 11 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 453 km/s at
08/0141Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/1935Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/1949Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 954 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Jul), quiet to active levels on day
two (10 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (11 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 129
Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 08 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 006/005-009/012-017/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/35
Minor Storm 05/15/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/40/55
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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