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CX2SA > SWPC 10.07.15 00:22l 64 Lines 2386 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23585_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JM1YTR<JE7YGF<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 150709/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:23585 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:23585_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/0337Z from Region 2381 (N14W11). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jul,
11 Jul, 12 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
396 km/s at 09/1636Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/1805Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/1813Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1226 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Jul), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (11 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (12 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 122
Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 09 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 009/012-017/025-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/35
Minor Storm 15/25/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/55/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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