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CX2SA > SWPC 12.07.15 00:22l 64 Lines 2398 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23799_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150711/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:23799 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:23799_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/1836Z from Region 2385 (N08W68). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 689 km/s at 11/1125Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 11/0229Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 10/2250Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1211
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 120
Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 11 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 011/015-009/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/20
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 50/30/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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