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CX2SA > SWPC 14.07.15 00:23l 62 Lines 2251 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23890_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150713/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:23890 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:23890_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jul,
15 Jul, 16 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 700 km/s at 13/0104Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/0343Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 13/0545Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 593
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Jul) and quiet
levels on days two and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 110
Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 110/110/105
90 Day Mean 13 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 012/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 025/041
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 014/018-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/10
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 50/30/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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