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CX2SA > SWPC 15.07.15 00:23l 63 Lines 2353 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24052_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150714/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:24052 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:24052_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/1210Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (15 Jul, 16 Jul)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (17 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
513 km/s at 14/0020Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14/2045Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/0052Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1424 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17
Jul).
III. Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 105
Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 14 Jul 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 022/035
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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