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CX2SA > SWPC 16.07.15 00:22l 62 Lines 2265 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24076_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150715/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:24076 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:24076_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (16 Jul, 17 Jul)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (18 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 635 km/s at
15/0512Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT. The maximum southward component of Bz
remained above -5 nT. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 3157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (16 Jul,
17 Jul, 18 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 101
Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 15 Jul 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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