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CX2SA > SWPC 22.07.15 00:22l 61 Lines 2241 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24587_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150721/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:24587 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:24587_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jul,
23 Jul, 24 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
452 km/s at 21/1803Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 21/0242Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 21/0455Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 249 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Jul) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 091
Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 090/095/095
90 Day Mean 21 Jul 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 006/005-013/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/25
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/30/35
Major-severe storm 20/45/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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