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CX2SA > SWPC 27.07.15 00:23l 63 Lines 2370 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24762_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150726/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:24762 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:24762_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/1234Z from Region 2389 (S11E35). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jul,
28 Jul, 29 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
507 km/s at 25/2222Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/0258Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/2219Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1109 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (28 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day three (29 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jul 097
Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 100/105/110
90 Day Mean 26 Jul 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 006/005-009/010-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/45
Minor Storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/10
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/55
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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