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CX2SA > SWPC 29.07.15 00:21l 62 Lines 2253 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24838_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JM1YTR<JE7YGF<N9PMO<CX2SA
Sent: 150728/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:24838 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:24838_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jul,
30 Jul, 31 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
518 km/s at 28/0413Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/0644Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/0747Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 423 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 101
Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 28 Jul 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 012/014-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/25
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 30/10/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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