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CX2SA > SWPC 04.08.15 00:22l 61 Lines 2240 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25067_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150803/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:25067 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:25067_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Aug,
05 Aug, 06 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
577 km/s at 02/2104Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/1056Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/0845Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1156 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Aug, 05 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on day three (06 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 106
Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 03 Aug 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 005/005-006/005-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 15/15/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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