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CX2SA > SWPC 11.08.15 00:23l 61 Lines 2236 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25349_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150810/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:25349 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:25349_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Aug 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug,
13 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
582 km/s at 10/0516Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/2104Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/1654Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1559 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 106
Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 10 Aug 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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