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CX2SA > SWPC 16.08.15 00:23l 65 Lines 2389 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25478_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150815/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:25478 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:25478_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Aug 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/1236Z from Region 2401 (S11E22). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Aug,
17 Aug, 18 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 550 km/s at 15/1433Z. Total IMF reached 27 nT at 15/0815Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -21 nT at 15/1008Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 192
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (17 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 089
Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 15 Aug 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 027/045
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 015/020-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/15
Minor Storm 25/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 60/40/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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