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CX2SA > SWPC 19.08.15 00:24l 61 Lines 2241 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25554_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150818/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:25554 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:25554_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Aug 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Aug,
20 Aug, 21 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
638 km/s at 18/0017Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/2050Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/2014Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21632 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Aug) and quiet levels on
days two and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 089
Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 090/095/095
90 Day Mean 18 Aug 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 027/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 009/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 45/15/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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