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CX2SA > SWPC 29.08.15 00:23l 67 Lines 2573 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26197_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150828/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:26197 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:26197_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Aug 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
28/1316Z from Region 2403 (S15W69). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (29 Aug,
30 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (31 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 440 km/s at 28/1841Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 28/1801Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 28/1708Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 256
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (29 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (30 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (31 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (29 Aug, 30 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M 60/60/50
Class X 10/10/05
Proton 10/10/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 109
Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 110/105/100
90 Day Mean 28 Aug 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 026/051
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 033/048
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 019/025-010/012-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/15
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 60/40/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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