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CX2SA > SWPC 30.08.15 00:22l 68 Lines 2582 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26232_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150829/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:26232 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:26232_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Aug 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
28/2347Z from Region 2403 (S15W82). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (30 Aug) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day two (31 Aug)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (01 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 512 km/s at 29/0712Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 28/2119Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 28/2119Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 684
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Aug, 31 Aug)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (01 Sep). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (30
Aug).
III. Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M 55/40/05
Class X 10/05/01
Proton 10/05/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 100
Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 100/095/095
90 Day Mean 29 Aug 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 028/045
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 009/010-009/008-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/45
Minor Storm 05/01/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/20/70
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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