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CX2SA > SWPC 02.09.15 00:23l 62 Lines 2282 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26482_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150901/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:26482 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:26482_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Sep 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (02
Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 398 km/s at
01/0240Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/1637Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/0916Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3144 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (04 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 089
Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 090/085/090
90 Day Mean 01 Sep 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 017/022-012/014-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/25
Minor Storm 25/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 60/50/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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