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CX2SA > SWPC 04.09.15 00:22l 62 Lines 2296 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26592_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150903/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:26592 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:26592_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Sep 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/1137Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
472 km/s at 03/1143Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 03/1915Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 03/1813Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 578 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 Sep,
05 Sep, 06 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 087
Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 085/090/090
90 Day Mean 03 Sep 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 010/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 008/008-008/010-008/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/40/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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