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CX2SA > SWPC 14.09.15 00:23l 61 Lines 2301 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27521_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150913/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:27521 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:27521_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Sep 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
529 km/s at 12/2128Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/1851Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/1429Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11910 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (14 Sep, 16 Sep)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (15 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 099
Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 13 Sep 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 010/012-015/020-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor Storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/45/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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