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CX2SA > SWPC 17.09.15 00:22l 63 Lines 2316 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27699_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150916/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:27699 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:27699_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Sep 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
16/1920Z from Region 2415 (S20W02). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Sep,
18 Sep, 19 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
533 km/s at 16/0553Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/1750Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/2151Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8045 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Sep,
18 Sep, 19 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Sep 109
Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 16 Sep 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 017/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 008/008-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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