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CX2SA > SWPC 18.09.15 00:23l 63 Lines 2344 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27774_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150917/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:27774 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:27774_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Sep 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/0940Z from Region 2415 (S20W16). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep,
20 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
535 km/s at 17/0729Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/1820Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/2300Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6939 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 107
Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 17 Sep 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 009/008-009/012-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/30
Minor Storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/35/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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