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CX2SA > SWPC 19.09.15 00:22l 64 Lines 2381 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27853_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150918/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:27853 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:27853_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Sep 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
17/2115Z from Region 2415 (S20W16). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep,
21 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
465 km/s at 18/1544Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 18/1209Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/1149Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3502 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Sep), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (20 Sep) and active to minor storm levels on day
three (21 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Sep 103
Predicted 19 Sep-21 Sep 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 18 Sep 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 014/016-018/025-021/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/40
Minor Storm 10/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/50/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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