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CX2SA > SWPC 21.09.15 00:22l 67 Lines 2599 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27963_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150920/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:27963 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:27963_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Sep 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
20/1803Z from Region 2415 (S19W56). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep,
23 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a
peak speed of 627 km/s at 20/0711Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 20/0536Z.
The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 20/0535Z.
Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level
of 3 pfu at 20/2045Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 383 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (21 Sep), unsettled
to active levels on day two (22 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (23 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (21 Sep, 22 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 10/10/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Sep 110
Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 20 Sep 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 031/044
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 022/020-014/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/10
Minor Storm 20/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 50/35/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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