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CX2SA > SWPC 28.09.15 00:23l 63 Lines 2287 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 28406_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150927/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:28406 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:28406_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
27/1040Z from Region 2422 (S20W16). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep,
30 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 453 km/s at
27/0743Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/0434Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/0615Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 476 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30
Sep).
III. Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 128
Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 27 Sep 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 007/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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