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CX2SA > SWPC 06.10.15 00:23l 63 Lines 2285 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 28836_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151005/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:28836 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:28836_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07
Oct, 08 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 504 km/s at 05/0434Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/2139Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/0458Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1899
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Oct), quiet to active
levels on day two (07 Oct) and active to minor storm levels on day three
(08 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 083
Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 05 Oct 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 016/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 009/008-012/014-025/036
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/35
Minor Storm 05/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/05
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/35/65
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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