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CX2SA > SWPC 07.10.15 00:22l 62 Lines 2297 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 28922_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151006/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:28922 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:28922_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
462 km/s at 05/2325Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 06/2058Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 06/2051Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6928 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (07 Oct), active to
major storm levels on day two (08 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels
on day three (09 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 081
Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 080/080/085
90 Day Mean 06 Oct 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 017/022-030/042-013/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/40
Minor Storm 35/35/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 75/70/60
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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