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CX2SA > SWPC 15.10.15 00:22l 64 Lines 2350 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 29425_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151014/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:29425 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:29425_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/1338Z from Region 2434 (S08E60). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct,
17 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 603 km/s at 14/0639Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/0357Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/2118Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7388
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (15 Oct, 16
Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M 30/40/40
Class X 01/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 101
Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 100/105/115
90 Day Mean 14 Oct 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 018/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 014/018-014/018-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor Storm 20/20/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/50/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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