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CX2SA > SWPC 17.10.15 00:23l 62 Lines 2284 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 29569_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151016/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:29569 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:29569_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/2331Z from Region 2434 (S10E34). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
470 km/s at 15/2303Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/2113Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/2228Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2472 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Oct,
18 Oct, 19 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 109
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 115/120/120
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 009/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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