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CX2SA > SWPC 18.10.15 00:23l 61 Lines 2279 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 29598_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151017/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:29598 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:29598_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Oct 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/2042Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct, 20 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
380 km/s at 16/2330Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1106Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/1921Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10702 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (18 Oct, 19 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (20 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 117
Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 17 Oct 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 008/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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