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CX2SA > SWPC 24.10.15 00:22l 62 Lines 2286 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 30025_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151023/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:30025 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:30025_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct,
26 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
513 km/s at 23/0412Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/2203Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/0409Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 376 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (25 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (26 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 115
Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 23 Oct 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 013/020-019/024-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/20
Minor Storm 15/20/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 45/50/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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