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CX2SA > SWPC 25.10.15 00:23l 64 Lines 2375 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 30108_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151024/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:30108 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:30108_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Oct 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/0428Z from Region 2434 (S11W75). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Oct,
26 Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
520 km/s at 24/1913Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 24/1831Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/1955Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 346 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (25 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (26 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (27
Oct).
III. Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 106
Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 24 Oct 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 019/024-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/20/10
Minor Storm 20/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 50/25/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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