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CX2SA > SWPC 25.10.15 23:22l 63 Lines 2366 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 30226_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151025/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:30226 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:30226_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/2130Z from Region 2434 (S11W89). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Oct,
27 Oct, 28 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
537 km/s at 25/0109Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 24/2318Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/2118Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 111 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Oct), quiet levels on day
two (27 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 106
Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 25 Oct 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 009/010-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/20
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 25/10/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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