| |
KF5JRV > WX 14.08.17 08:58l 114 Lines 5144 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 391_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Atlantic Tropical WX 8/7
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<CX2SA<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170807/1215Z 391@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXNT20 KNHC 071152
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 17.3N 84.7W at 07/1200
UTC or about 200 nm east of Belize City, moving WNW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection is from 14N-20N between 80W-85W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere
from 11N-23N between 81W-87W across inland portions of Central
America...western Cuba...and the Yucatan Channel. See the latest
NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 12N43W to 20N42W moving W at 10-15
kt. A 1012 mb low is centered at the southern extent of the wave
axis near 14N43W providing focus for widely scattered moderate
convection from 12N-17N between 40W-44W.
A tropical wave extends from 11N63W to 19N60W moving W at 10-15
kt. Well removed from the wave to the west is a 700 mb trough
currently over the Mona Passage and vicinity. While the low-
level moisture convergence remains ample about the axis...a
vigorous middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery
centered near 22N65W and continues to provide a favorable
diffluent environment supporting scattered moderate convection
from 16N-23N between 56W-61W.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
08N21W to 13N34W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 13N34W to 14N41W then from 12N43W to 06N55W. Aside from
convection associated with the tropical waves...scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 17W-27W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A weak upper level low is centered over the central Gulf near
25N91W and provides a weakness in upper level ridging between a
ridge anchored over NW Mexico and a ridge anchored over the
Florida Keys. Overall...mostly clear skies and fair conditions
prevail this morning as a surface ridge axis extends from a 1022
mb high centered in the SW North Atlc near 30N70W across the
central Florida peninsula to the east-central Mexico coast near
21N97W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring in the NW Gulf N
of 28N between 91W-96W...and across the Yucatan Channel region as
outer bands of convection from Tropical Storm Franklin begin
impacting the SE Gulf waters this morning. Gentle to moderate
S-SE winds are expected today...but by tonight...the surface
ridge axis is forecast to move northward as Franklin begins to
impact the Yucatan peninsula and track into the SW Gulf waters on
Tuesday.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Primary concern is Tropical Storm Franklin for the NW Caribbean
this morning as it tracks WNW toward the Yucatan peninsula during
the next 24 hours. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring
generally N of 13N W of 80W. Farther east...a majority of the
central and eastern Caribbean is under the influence of NW flow
aloft and fairly tranquil conditions. However a tropical wave is
analyzed along 61W/62W moving across the Lesser Antilles
generating isolated showers and tstms. Stronger convection is
noted NE of the Leeward Islands occurring from 17N-23N between
56W-61W and continues to be enhanced by an upper level low
centered N of Puerto Rico near 22N65W. The wave is expected to
move westward with increased cloudiness and precipitation expected
across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late Monday into Tuesday.
...HISPANIOLA...
Fair conditions prevail this morning and also lie to the east as
an upper level low and associated drier air currently centered N
of Puerto Rico near 22N65W drifts westward. An approaching
tropical wave is expected to increase cloudiness and precipitation
across the island Tuesday and Tuesday night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level anticyclone is centered over the Florida Keys near
25N80W supporting a 1022 mb high centered near 30N70W. Mostly
fairly conditions prevail...however a few isolated showers are
possible S of 26N W of 70W embedded within moderate tradewind
flow. In addition...an upper level low is centered N of Puerto
Rico near 22N65W. Widely scattered showers and tstms are occurring
from 20N-22N between 64W-69W. Farther east...another 1022 mb high
centered in the central Atlc near 28N49W is continuing to provide
fair weather for much of the discussion area N of the deep
tropics.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
HUFFMAN/RIVERA
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
