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KF5JRV > WX 28.08.17 19:56l 137 Lines 6352 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 1786_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Atlantic Tropical WX 8/28
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<CX2SA<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170828/1115Z 1786@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXNT20 KNHC 280556
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Harvey is centered near 28.7N 96.4W at 28/0600 UTC
or about 15 nm N of Port O'Connor Texas moving ESE at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection is from 27N-33N between 90W-98W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 25N-35N between
88W-98W. See latest Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC for more details.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten is centered near 30.3N 81.0W at
28/0600 UTC or about 160 nm SSW of Charleston South Carolina and
about 280 nm SW of Wilmington North Carolina remaining
stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 28N-32N
between 76W-80W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from
27N-35N between 72W-81W. See latest Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 12N32W to 25N31W moving W at 5-10
kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 28W-37W.
Infrared satellite imagery shows the presence of Saharan dust
surrounding the wave environment N of the monsoon trough axis. No
significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this
time.
A tropical wave extends from 13N58W to 24N61W moving W at 15-20
kt. The wave coincides with broad troughing at 700 mb between 55W-
62W and continues to generate widely scattered moderate
convection from 17N-24N between 55W-63W.
A tropical wave extends from 11N74W to 23N70W moving W at 10-15
kt. Subtle 700 mb troughing aloft is noted in the vicinity of the
wave between 69W-75W and continues to generate isolated moderate
convection from 18N-21N between 67W-73W...mainly across
Hispaniola.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 14N27W to 12N36W to
12N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from
10N-17N between 12W-23W. Widely scattered moderate convection
elsewhere from 06N-10N between 16W-37W...and from 10N-14N between
38W-50W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
With the surface circulation of Harvey inland across southern
Texas...scattered showers and tstms continue across the NW and
north-central Gulf waters generally N of 25N W of 88W. Harvey
remains on the northwestern periphery of an upper level ridge
anchored over the central Gulf near 26N88W that extends influence
over the entire Gulf basin from the NE waters to the SW waters
and the Florida peninsula. To the east of Harvey...upper level
divergence associated with the ridging supports scattered showers
and tstms occurring across the eastern Gulf S of 29N E of 87W in
association with a surface trough extending from Potential
Tropical Cyclone Ten across the central Florida peninsula to the
Tampa Bay region and into the eastern waters near 26N87W. The
remainder of the Gulf is under mostly gentle to moderate
southerly winds with the exception of gentle to moderate cyclonic
winds across the eastern Gulf in closer proximity to the surface
troughing across Florida. Harvey is expected to remain in the
vicinity of the Texas coast through mid-week with a ridge axis
extending from the Florida peninsula to the SW Gulf as Potential
Tropical Cyclone Ten moves NE in the SW North Atlc waters.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Much of the NW Caribbean and portions of Central America N of
Nicaragua are under the influence of NE flow aloft with upper
level convective debris cloudiness moving over the NW Caribbean
this evening. To the east...an upper level low is centered near
17N80W generating isolated showers and tstms in the adjacent
coastal waters of eastern Cuba. As the upper level low continues
to retrograde...upper level ridging will continue to build in
over the eastern Caribbean through Monday. A tropical wave
currently across the central Caribbean along 73W will likely
benefit with a favorable divergent environment aloft supporting
scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring between 71W-75W.
Another tropical wave along 60W will begin to bring isolated
showers and tstms to the Lesser Antilles through Monday.
Lastly...moderate to fresh trades prevail and are expected to
persist through Tuesday night. Thereafter...trades across central
portions of the basin will increase as high pressure anchored to
the N across the SW North Atlc waters.
...HISPANIOLA...
A tropical wave across the island is bringing scattered showers
and isolated tstms through the overnight hours into Monday. As
this wave passes another tropical wave currently E-NE of the
Leeward Islands will approach Tuesday and bring another round of
precipitation.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten continues to impact the
northwestern portion of the discussion area this evening.
Scattered showers and tstms associated with the area of low
pressure links up with a stationary front analyzed N of the area
offshore of the Carolinas. This convection reaches from the low NE
to a 1012 mb gale force low centered near 36N66W. Farther east...
an upper level low is centered near 30N49W and supports a surface
trough analyzed from 28N56W to 33N52W. Isolated showers and tstms
are occurring from 29N-33N between 46W-51W. The remainder of the
central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1028 mb high centered W of the Azores near 40N32W.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
HUFFMAN
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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