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KF5JRV > WX 03.09.17 16:24l 123 Lines 5207 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 2152_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Atlantic Tropical WX 9/3
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170903/1415Z 2152@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXNT20 KNHC 030946
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
546 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Irma is centered near 18.0N 47.5W at 03/0900 UTC or
about 820 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving W at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous strong
convection is from 16N to 20N between 44W and 49W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 15N to 21N between 38W and
52W. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. See
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the E Atlc associated with a 1012 mb low
located near 09N30W. The wave axis extends from 15N30W to the low
to 06N30W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of low
vertical wind shear, however enhanced IR imagery show some Saharan
dry air and dust in the wave environment. CIRA LPW imagery at the
lower levels confirm the presence of dry air in the vicinity of
the wave. Shallow moisture and diffluence aloft support scattered
showers and tstms from 02N to 13N between 20W and 38W.
A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
21N67W to 11N69W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a region
of low vertical wind shear, however it continues being affected by
dry air subsidence from aloft. Shallow moisture support scattered
to isolated showers over the NE Caribbean, Puerto Rico, the Mona
Passage and Hispaniola.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
09N30W to 11N40W to 12N45W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical wave in the E Atlc, scattered moderate
convection is from 04N to 09N E of 20W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough
extending over the E CONUS S to a base just N of the Bay of
Campeche. The trough supports a dissipating stationary front
extending across the Florida panhandle to near 29N91W. A pre-
frontal surface trough extends from 26N81W to 23N85W. Another
surface trough is in the western Bay of Campeche extending from
24N97W to 18N95W. Upper level diffluent flow to the SSE of the
trough base along with abundant low level moisture across the
southern basin continue to support scattered showers and tstms
generally S of 26N E of 91W and S of 22N W of 91W. Otherwise,
mostly light to gentle variable wind is noted across the Gulf with
locally moderate E flow mainly in the W half of the basin.
Generally, surface lower pressure will persist in the SW Gulf in
the form of a trough the next two days while a weak ridge will
build over the eastern half of the basin.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Upper level diffluent flow to the SSE of a trough base located N
of the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico continue to support
numerous heavy showers and tstms over Guatemala, Belize, the
western half of Honduras and the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong
winds are in the Gulf of Honduras due to the strong convection.
In the SW basin, the E extension of the EPAC monsoon trough
support isolated showers S of 12N W of 80W and scattered showers
and tstms S of 10N between Panama and Colombia. A tropical wave
is moving across E Caribbean waters, thus supporting scattered to
isolated showers in the NE basin as well as Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola. See the tropical waves section above for further
details. Water vapor imagery show dry air aloft across the
remainder basin, which subsidence is supporting fair weather
conditions. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are basin-wide.
Looking beyond today, Hurricane Irma is forecast to approach 60W
Tuesday night.
...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers and tstms are expected to continue through the
day today as a tropical wave moves across the Island. The wave is
expected to pass west of the island by early Monday morning with
conditions gradually improving into Tuesday.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Hurricane Irma remains on the southwestern periphery of a ridge
anchored by a 1026 mb high centered SW of the Azores near 34N32W.
See special features section for further details. A middle to
upper level trough progressing over the E CONUS supports isolated
showers over the far western SW North Atlc waters, including
interior portions of Florida. Farther east, an upper level low
continue to support a stationary front extending from 30N59W SW
to 26N66W with isolated showers occurring within 60 nm either
side of the boundary. The stationary front is forecast to weaken
and dissipate by late tonight.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
Ramos
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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