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KF5JRV > WX 11.09.17 13:43l 123 Lines 5177 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 3734_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Atlantic Tropical WX 9/11
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170911/1115Z 3734@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXNT20 KNHC 110616
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
216 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
At 11/0600 UTC, the center of Hurricane Irma is near 28.2N 82.2W
or about 17 NM NW of Lakeland, Florida, moving NNW at 13 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Irma is a Category
1 hurricane with maximum sustained wind speeds of 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. Irma is forecast to move to S Georgia in 24
hours. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 24N-33N
between 76W-85W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and, the
Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
for more details.
At 11/0300 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is near 23.7N 68.1W,
or about 212 NM NE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 12 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure has risen to 962 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. The
eye of the storm is no longer discernible. Jose is forecast to
turn more toward the N over the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is from 21N-25N between 67W-70W. Please read
the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and, the Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the E Atlc associated with a 1012 mb low
near 12N30W. The wave axis extends from 18N29W to the low center
to 06N31W, moving W at 20 kt. This wave coincides with a 700 mb
trough. SSMI TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded
in an area of deep layer moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 13N-16N between 29W-34W. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some development.
There is a medium chance for a tropical depression to form during
the next few days.
A tropical wave extends from 19N57W to 08N57W, moving W at 15 kt.
This wave coincides with moderate troughing in 700 mb wind fields.
SSMI TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an
area of deep layer moisture. Widely scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm of the wave axis.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 19N16W
to 12N30W to 10N44W to 10N47W. The ITCZ continues from 10N47W to
11N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate to strong convection is from 08N-13N
between 42W-55W.
...DISCUSSION...
...THE GULF OF MEXICO...
The center of Hurricane Irma is inland over central Florida moving
to S Georgia. An extensive band of convection is over the N
semicircle moving N. 34 kt winds extend 360 NE, 200 SE, 150 SW,
240 NW, from the center (nm). Refer to the special features
section for further details. High pressure is building into the
western half of the Gulf.
...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A few lingering bands from Hurricane Irma are sweeping across
portions of central Cuba and weakening with time as the center of
the storm pushes further N across Florida. Very moist southerly
flow associated with Irma is over the central and western
Caribbean underneath upper level diffluent flow, which is
supporting scattered showers and tstms across the western half of
the basin. Scattered showers are embedded within the outer
rainbands of Hurricane Jose along the coast of Hispaniola. Fresh
SSW winds associated with Irma are over the NW Caribbean. A
tropical wave is forecast to move over E Caribbean waters Monday
and Tuesday.
...HISPANIOLA...
The outer rainbands of Hurricane Jose along the N coast of
Hispaniola are moving N and away from the island. Expect scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms to build over the island
during afternoon and evening maximum heating Monday.
...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the special features section above for information
concerning Hurricanes Irma and Jose. Seas over the extreme
western north Atlantic waters are building to 12 to 17 feet as
tropical storm force winds in the NE semicircle of Irma overspread
the area. Scattered to numerous squalls accompanied the
increasing winds and seas mainly N of 25N and within 180-240 Nm
of the Florida east coast. Outside of the influence of the
tropical cyclones, a 1028 mb Azores high is centered near 39N29W
with ridging extending S to near 19N E of 55W. Two tropical waves
are also over the tropical Atlantic. See above. Of note in the
upper levels, an upper level low is centered near 30N45W.
Scattered showers are within 300 nm of the center.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
Formosa
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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