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KF5JRV > WX 07.11.17 14:12l 106 Lines 4563 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 7582_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Atlantic Tropical WX 11/7
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<VK2DOT<AB0AF<KF5JRV
Sent: 171107/1151Z 7582@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXNT20 KNHC 071114
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
614 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 30.4N 49.9W at 07/0900 UTC
or about 765 nm E of Bermuda and about 1190 nm WSW of the Azores
moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 31N to 34N
between 45W and 50W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from Senegal on the African coast near
13N17W to 09N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
continues from 09N19W to 07N31W to 04N45W to the coast of South
America at 06N55W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is present within 180 nm either side of a line from
09N16W to 05N40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
observed from 06N to 08N between 40W and 58W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 mb high is centered over the Gulf of Mexico just S of the
Florida Panhandle near 29.5N85.5W. The high continues to maintain
a benign weather pattern over the basin. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds generally prevail over the Gulf, with the
exception that moderate to occasionally fresh return flow from the
SSE has set up N of 21N and W of 95W ahead of the next frontal
boundary which is currently over central Texas. An upper-level
ridge crosses the Gulf from near Tampico Mexico to near Tampa
Florida. Strong subsidence beneath the ridge remains over the
entire Gulf. The front is still expected to arrive on the Texas
and Louisiana coasts Wed evening, then slowly move SE through Thu
morning. The front will be accompanied by showers and
thunderstorms.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The monsoon trough extends over the far SW Caribbean from the
Eastern Pacific across Costa Rica to NW Colombia near 10N73W.
Isolated thunderstorms associated with the trough are confined to
south of 10N and near the coast of Colombia from 11.5N to 14.5N
between 73W and 75W. Low pressure over northern South America and
high pressure over the western Atlc are maintaining light to
moderate cyclonic wind flow over the basin. An upper-level trough
extends NE over the NW Caribbean from NE Nicaragua to NE Cuba.
Upper-level divergence E of the trough axis is producing scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection over the Hispaniola,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands from 17N to 23N between 62W
and 71W. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the Windward
Passage from 18N to 24N between 71W and 75W. Expect more showers
and thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean during the next 48 hours
as the monsoon trough remains in place. Convection over the
eastern Caribbean will slowly shift eastward and gradually
diminish as the upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean slowly
progresses eastward and weakens.
...HISPANIOLA...
A surface trough extends from Haiti near 18N73W to just E of the
central Bahamas near 26N74.5W. Upper-level divergence is also
aiding convection over the island. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms that are most concentrated over the Dominican
Republic should slowly taper off during the next 48 hours and the
upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean moves eastward slowly
and weakens.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the special features section for more information on Tropical
Storm Rina. Otherwise, a surface trough extends over the western
Atlc from Haiti near 18N73W to just E of the central Bahamas near
26N74.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
found mainly N of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic from 17N
to 23N between 62W and 71W. An upper-level trough is over the
central Atlantic from 31N41W to 23N41W to 15N46W. Scattered
moderate convection is taking place from 25N to 28N between 46W
and 48W. Otherwise, a 1037 mb high centered over the central
Atlantic near 44N33W is maintaining fair weather over the basin E
of 60W.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
McElroy
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