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HP2BWJ > METEO 13.12.17 02:23l 96 Lines 4354 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 5214-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171213/0014Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:5214 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : METEO@CEAM
000
AXNT20 KNHC 122327
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Liberia,
Africa and continues to near 06N13W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone extends from 06N13W to 07N20W to 04N35W to the coast of NE
Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is within about 180 nm north of ITCZ axis W of 30W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A reinforcing and dry cold front extends from northern Florida
across the northern Gulf waters to south Texas. The front will
move across the southeast Gulf by early Wed morning followed by
moderate to fresh NW winds over the eastern Gulf, and gentle
moderate northerly winds elsewhere. A 1033 mb high pressure
located over Texas extends a ridge over the remainder of the Gulf
region, and will continue to build eastward in the wake of the
front. This will reinforce the cool and dry airmass over the
State of Florida. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted ahead of
the front moving quickly southward. Patches of low level clouds
with embedded light showers are over the Bay of Campeche, where a
surface trough is analyzed on the 1800 UTC surface map. The next
cold front will move into the northern Gulf waters Thu, and reach
from the Florida Big Bend area in the NE Gulf to near Tampico
Mexico by early Fri.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A quasistationary frontal boundary persists across the basin and
extends from eastern Cuba to the SW Caribbean near 10N82W. The
most recent scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong northerly
winds within about 240 nm to the W of the front and mainly south
of 20N. A band of broken to overcast multi-layered clouds prevails
to the W of the front affecting from eastern Cuba to western
Panama and Costa Rica. Some convective activity is also noted
along the frontal boundary just south of Jamaica. A swirl of low
clouds is seen on visible satellite imagery near 15N71W related to
a weak easterly perturbation. Light to gentle winds dominate the
eastern Caribbean with seas generally below 5 ft based on altimeter
data and buoy observations. The front is forecast to meander
across the central Caribbean and gradually weaken through Thursday.
HISPANIOLA...
Moisture is forecast to increase across the island on Wed as the
frontal boundary currently located over eastern Cuba drifts eastward
across the Windward Passage into Hispaniola. This will increase
the likelihood of showers Wed and possibly Thu.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A quasistationary frontal boundary enters the forecast area near
31N59W, then continues SW to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba into
the Caribbean Sea. A band of multi-layered clouds with embedded
showers is associated with the front forecast to dissipate by late
Wed. A reinforcing cold front is just moving off NE Florida and
it is forecast to reach from near Bermuda to NW Cuba early on Wed.
Fresh to strong SW flow is noted ahead of this front mainly N of
30N. A weak and narrow surface ridge extends from the Gulf of
Mexico NE across S Florida to near Bermuda ahead of this
reinforcing front. A third cold front enters the Atlantic Ocean
through Mauritania, west Africa and continues W, then NW to near
23N34W. The remainder of the Atlantic Ocean is under the influence
of a 1033 mb high pressure located just south of the Azores.
Fresh to locally strong anticylonic flow is seen S and SW of the
ridge, and generally E of 53W, where a surface trough is found
drifting W. The pressure gradient between this high and a low
pressure system over west Africa is resulting in gale force winds
from 28N-31N between the coast of Africa and 13W. Fresh to strong
winds are spreading west and south between the coast of Africa and
the Canary Islands.
For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
GR
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