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HP2BWJ > METEO 17.12.17 01:24l 129 Lines 4931 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 5543-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Tropical Weather Discussion
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171216/2256Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:5543 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : METEO@CEAM
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161804
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea...
Strong surface high pressure that is in the SW N Atlantic Ocean
is helping to create a strong surface pressure gradient in the
Caribbean Sea. Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds, at times, along
the coast of Colombia from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W with
minor variations, during the next two days. The gale-force winds
will pulse at night, continuing through Monday. The sea heights
will range from 10 feet to 15 feet in this same area. Please read
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N11W, to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to
05N29W and 02N36W, and to 01N40W. Precipitation: from 10N
southward between 06W and 34W. widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers from 10N southward between 06W and
34W. isolated moderate from 06N southward between 34W and 53W.
An upper level trough passes through Africa near 30N03W, to the
Atlantic Ocean near 25N23W, to 18N31W 15N40W 10N43W, and to
08N53W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent
in satellite imagery.
A surface trough is along 51W/52W from 12N to 23N. rainshowers
are possible from 10N to 24N between 43W and 60W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends from the area of Tampa Florida, toward
the central Gulf of Mexico, curving southward to the northern part
of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A surface trough
has formed along the coast of the Deep South of Texas and extreme
NE Mexico. A surface low pressure center is forecast to form in
the area of the current surface trough, and move to the coastal
areas of SW Louisiana in 24 hours. The stationary front will
transition into a warm front and move northward, into the NW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that the warm front
may connect with the surface low pressure center that is forecast
to develop.
Broken to overcast low level, and some areas of rainshowers,
cover the Gulf waters, to the north and NW of 86W from 21N to
27N.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A middle level-to-upper level ridge extends from the NE corner of
the Caribbean Sea, toward Jamaica, through the Yucatan Channel.
Colombia to the NW part of Cuba.
A surface trough extends from southern Honduras to 20N along the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers
cover the area from Nicaragua to Honduras, to Belize, to the NE
corner of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details
about the gale-force winds for the coast of Colombia during the
next two days.
...HISPANIOLA...
Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Broad
middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
entire Caribbean Sea.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...HAITI, in Port-au-Prince: VFR. in the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: VFR at all the locations.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that a ridge will be to
the west of Hispaniola. Expect NW wind flow during the next 48
hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that NE wind flow
will move across the area during the next 2 days, with an Atlantic
Bahamas-to-SE Cuba anticyclonic circulation center. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the
area, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Florida ridge.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A deep layer trough passes through 32N42W to 26N44W. rainshowers
are possible from 24N to 30N between 45W and 50W.
A shallow cold front passes through Bermuda, to 30N71W, and to
central Florida. A surface trough also is along 30N66W to 26N72W,
to Andros Island in the Bahamas. Broken to overcast low level
clouds and possible rainshowers are to the west of the line that
passes through 32N50W 24N66W 21N76W.
An upper level trough passes through Africa near 30N03W, to the
Atlantic Ocean near 25N23W, to 18N31W 15N40W 10N43W, and to
08N53W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent
in satellite imagery.
A surface trough is along 51W/52W from 12N to 23N. rainshowers
are possible from 10N to 24N between 43W and 60W.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
MT
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