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HP2BWJ > METEO 26.12.17 15:06l 78 Lines 2930 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 6340-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171226/1401Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:6340 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : METEO@CEAM
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260920
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Dec 26 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure extending south
from Texas to southern Mexico is maintaining minimal gale force
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A scatterometer pass at 0350
UTC showed a small area of 30-35 kt N winds north of 15N in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. The pressure gradient across the area will
diminish today, and winds are expected to remain 20-30 kt in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec the next two days. Model guidance indicates
winds will reach minimal gale again on Thursday, then persist
into the weekend as high pressure builds in the Gulf of Mexico.
Refer to the latest high seas forecast issued under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 05N78W to 07N85W to 05N95W to
09N110W to 09N121W. The ITCZ continues from 09N121W to 08N128W
to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 07N to 10N between 110W and 118W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the special features section above for details
on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale event.
A relatively static synoptic pattern associated with a nearly
stationary subtropical high west of California and a surface
ridge extending SE from the high will persist for several days,
and gentle to moderate NW to N winds are expected west of Mexico
through the end of the week. Seas will be generally 4-6 ft in
offshore waters and 2-4 ft in the Gulf of California.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate high pressure in the western Caribbean will continue to
support fresh to strong NE winds from 09N to 11N east of 90W,
including the Gulf of Papagayo, through early Thursday with seas
to 7-9 ft in mixed NE wind waves and SW swell. Mainly gentle
winds are expected elsewhere through Thu, with offshore seas
generally 4-5 ft.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Long-period NW swell is producing peak seas north of 25N and
west of 135W around 9 ft. Seas will gradually diminish as the
wave train continues moving SE. A trade wind disturbance near
12N114W drifting westward the next few days will induce fresh
trade winds north of 10N between 115W and 125W through Thursday.
The large area of NW swell will combine with wind waves created
by this disturbance to produce an area of combined seas of 8 ft.
$$
Mundell
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