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HP2BWJ > METEO 29.12.17 22:24l 104 Lines 4542 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 6705-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171229/2013Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:6705 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : METEO@CEAM
00
AXNT20 KNHC 291800
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to
05N16W to 04N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 04N20W to 04N30W to 01N40W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-08N between 30W-48W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
Zonal westerly flow aloft prevails over the northern half Gulf
where strong high pressure starts to build. Just south of the
ridge, a stationary front extends from 26N81W to 27N86W to 26N90W
to a 1023 mb low near 25N95W. The stationary front continues
S-SW from the low to near Veracruz, Mexico. A tighter pressure
gradient between the ridge and the frontal boundary support fresh
to locally strong NE winds in the NW basin, extending to near 87W.
Light to moderate northerlies are elsewhere N of the front.
GOES-16 water imagery show very dry air in the middle and lower
levels, which is allowing only for isolated showers within 60 nm
either side of the front. Across the northern Gulf, upper level tropical
moisture from the EPAC supports broken to overcast clouds. The
front will weaken and is forecast to dissipate by Saturday morning
leaving a remnant surface trough in the SW Gulf. Otherwise,
surface ridging will influence the eastern Gulf and Florida
peninsula through Sunday night. Thereafter, the next strong cold
front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts
Sunday evening.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Middle to upper level ridging persists over the Caribbean basin
with water vapor imagery indicating mostly dry and stable
conditions aloft. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the Caribbean
waters, however strong high pressure building over the Gulf of
Mexico will increase slightly the pressure gradient in the SW
basin, leading to fresh to strong winds in that region starting
Saturday morning and continuing through Sunday. Otherwise, patches
of shallow moisture continue to move across Hispaniola and Puerto
Rico supporting isolated to scattered showers. Similar shower activity
is occurring over the Gulf of Honduras and off the Yucatan
Peninsula and Belize associated with a surface trough in that
region. Low pressure off the coast of Colombia and west of
Colombia over Pacific waters support scattered showers S of 15N W
of 68W. This convection is expected to continue moving westward
across interior portions of Central America. Little change is
expected during through Tuesday.
...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly dry and stable conditions are aloft, however, patches of shallow
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow continue to support
scattered to isolated showers over the Dominican Republic.
Similar weather is forecast to persist through Saturday as low
level moisture continue to advect from the east.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad middle to upper level trough covering the eastern CONUS
and the NW Atlc waters supports a 1018 mb low over the SW N Atlc
waters near 29N77W. A cold front extends from the low SW to the SE
tip of Florida with isolated showers affecting the northern
Bahamas. A warm front extends E-SE of the low to 30N73W to 28N68W
where it transitions to a stationary front that continues to
27N60W. A cold front continues from that last point location to
30N51W. Scattered showers are N of the low between the low center
and 67W. Otherwise, isolated showers are within 75 nm either side
of the frontal boundary. Two pre-frontal trough are generating
scattered to isolated showers S of 26N between 52W and 77W.
Otherwise, the remainder of central and eastern Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high centered
SE of the Azores near 34N16W. A middle level low noted between
30W and 40W and diffluent flow east of this feature support
scattered showers N of 14N E of 35W. The cold front will move
across the SW N Atlc waters through Sunday. A new cold front will
enter this region on Monday evening.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
Ramos
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