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HP2BWJ > METEO 30.12.17 16:45l 109 Lines 4762 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 6782-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171230/1421Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:6782 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : METEO@CEAM
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300914
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
614 UTC Sat Dec 30 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure north of the
area has weakened and winds funneling into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec have diminished. Overnight scatterometer pass
indicates a large area of 30 kt winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Despite this, have decided to keep the gale warning
up until early morning as there remains a large area of gale
force winds at 30 meters. Overnight hours have the added
component of nocturnal drainage flow as well as mixing of the 30
meter winds to the surface. The gale warning will be brought
down this morning when the drainage flow and mixing of winds
decreases. Winds over the southwest Gulf of Mexico will veer
today and Sunday. This will further diminish winds funneling into
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. By Sunday, winds will diminish to 20 kt
or less, bringing an end to the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gap
wind event. Refer to the latest high seas forecast issued under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 for more details.
Gale Warning: Deepening low pressure will approach the northwest
portion of the forecast area Sunday. The pressure gradient between
this deepening low and high pressure to the west of the forecast
area will bring a period of gale force winds over the far NW
waters, mainly north of 28N and west of 138W late Sunday night
into Monday morning before winds diminish. The winds will also
usher in a large set of NW swell, with seas peaking near 22 ft by
Monday morning. Seas will slowly subside while propagating
southeastward over the week. By midweek, combined seas of 8 ft
or greater will cover much of the waters north of 10N and west
of 120W. Refer to the latest high seas forecast issued under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 07N97W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N97W to 08N116W to 09N128W. It resumes from 09N131W to
09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
north of 06N between 79W and 83W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection was noted from 06N to 09N between 101W and
105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
from 07N to 13N between 110W and 120W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to the special features
section above for details on the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gale
event. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will push into the Gulf
of Mexico late on Sunday. The front will reach the Bay of
Campeche Monday, with strong high pressure in its wake expected
to induce the next gale force gap wind event over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. This next gale force gap winds event has the
potential to be a strong and long lasting event, persisting for
much of the next work week.
Elsewhere, tranquil marine conditions are expected with light to
gentle winds prevailing over the forecast waters. Seas in the
range of 3 to 5 ft will continue over the offshore waters, while
seas in the 1 to 3 ft range will prevail in the Gulf of California.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
NE winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Papagayo
through the middle of next week. Light to gentle NE to E winds
will prevail elsewhere N of 09N, with gentle to moderate S to SW
winds expected S of 09N.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see above in special features section for more on the
gale warning over the NW waters, and associated swell.
A cold front has moved into the NW waters, currently extending
from 30N139W to 26N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted within 30 NM east of the front. Latest
scatterometer pass suggests winds of 20 to 25 kt north of 28N
within 30 nm east of the front. A fresh set of NW swell has moved
into the NW waters with this front, with combined seas reaching
near 9 ft. Winds and seas associated to this front will fall
below advisory criteria today. Latest scatterometer pass
indicates a weak surface trough has developed from 18N122W to
11N124W, and depicts fresh to strong winds from 16N to 18N east
of the trough to around 121W. Winds and seas associated to this
trough are expected to diminish below advisory criteria today.
$$
AL
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