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HP2BWJ > METEO 31.12.17 15:45l 92 Lines 3571 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 6892-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171231/1330Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:6892 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : METEO@CEAM
000
AXNT20 KNHC 311103
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
603 AM EST Sun Dec 31 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
As of 31/0900 UTC, a strong cold front is over the northern Gulf
of Mexico. The front will extend from Tampa Bay Florida to
Tampico, Mexico on Sunday night. Behind the front, frequent gusts
to gale force are expected within 60 nm of the coast between
Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida and High Island Texas beginning at
0600 UTC Monday. By Monday night, gale force winds will cover the
Bay of Campeche S of 21N and W of 95W. Seas will be 12-14 ft.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 05N10W to
05N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N16W to 04N40W to the South American coast near 04N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N between 36W-51W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N-13N
between 54W-60W.
...DISCUSSION...
...THE GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 31/0900 UTC, a strong cold front extends from the Florida
Panhandle near Tallahassee at 31N84W to the Texas coast near
Corpus Christi at 28N97W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers
between the Florida Panhandle and SE Louisiana. A 1017 mb low is
embedded on the front at 29N92W. A surface trough extends S from
the low to 24N95W. Scattered showers are within 15 nm of the
trough. In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted with upper level
moisture over the central Gulf. Expect the front to push S to the
Bay of Campeche and produce gale force winds behind the front.
See above. The surface low in 24 hours will move E to the NE Gulf
near 28N85W.
...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough over Panama and Costa Rica supports scattered
moderate convection S of 12N. Elsewhere, scattered showers are
over the Leeward and Windward Islands. Moderate trades are over
the N Caribbean N of 15N, while moderate to fresh trades are over
the S Caribbean. Broad ridging aloft covers the entire basin with
the strongest flow over the NW part. A cold front will reach the
NW Caribbean on Tuesday.
...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly dry and stable conditions are aloft, however, patches of
shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow continue to
support scattered showers over the island. Similar weather is
forecast to persist through Monday as low level moisture continue
to advect from the east.
...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N75W to the N
Bahamas near 25N76W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
trough. A cold front extends over the W Atlantic from 31N59W to
26N71W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the front from 29N-
32N between 50W-57W. A 1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic near
32N23W. Expect a new cold front to enter the W Atlantic off the
coast of Florida Sunday afternoon with showers. Expect the other
cold front to continue to move E with convection.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
Formosa
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